I do believe that these devices – now in 75% of American homes – will take an increasingly central place in people’s lives, but I also believe that marketers who think they can impose ad models on mobile from other mediums may find themselves in for a rude awakening.

Some numbers from Forester Research:

1. Only 16% are interested in free downloads (like ring tones) in exchange for watching ads
2. Only 15% are interested in entering a code from a product or advertisement
3. Only 14% are interested in loyalty programs or frequent-shopper cards tied to their cell number
4. Only 12% are interested in listening to audo ads in exchange for free director assistance
5. Only 11% want to see ads next to mobile maps or directions
6. Only 7% want to see ads in mobile games
7. Only 6% want to see banners on the top of a mobile web page
8. Only 4% want to see text messages from advertisers
9. Only 3% want to receive cell phone calls from advertisers

Do these results mean that all these models are doomed?

Not at all. When the first banner ad appeared on a web home page there was a near cyber-riot among early Internet users. People learned to acccept them – and ignore them.

I think models that trade a value (download or service) in exchange for a consumer’s agreeing to listen to an ad might work and whether folks like it or not, there will be banner ads on mobile pages, ads next to mobile maps and directions, and advertising in mobile games.

Also, for sure, people who are interested in a product will text message a code to get more information and that may be  one of the most immediate uses for us’n.

No one wants to opt-in or be on another mailing list – unless the goodie they’re being offered is immediately relevent to their interests and passions. When that’s the case, consumers don’t think twice about sharing info about themselves.

As I was paging through "Smartphone and Pocket PC" with my young nephew Jacob (he’s a massive cell phone ethusiast and his younger brother Sam is a massive small screen games player), it occurred to me what’s about to happen…

If you remember the old PC world, there used to be dozens of players. It seemed that a new one entered the market everday. Today, while there are several big manufacturers and retailers, diversity has cooled down considerably.

The same thing happened in the early days of the automobile business. There were scores of car markers in the early days  (sounds weird but it’s true, look it up.)

That’s what we’re  looking at today in mobile computing.  The scope and variety is dizzying and I’m guessing two things:

1. It’s the sign of a a hyper-vital market that is ready to explode
2. A standard is going to emerge and whoever controls or can profit from that standard is going to own a hugely profitable franchise.

Who will it be? I don’t know, but keep your eyes open. Someone’s going to win and if you’re a stock buyer, just buy and hold.

In the short term, here’s how you can get your hands on Pocket PCs for less. It’s called UsedHandHelds.com.

Ken

P.S.

Why do I say "goofy"? Because you’d think in the middle of System 2007, I’d have more pressing things to do than jump into a brand new (to me) field and start thinking and writing about it, but I’ve learned not to second guess my instincts on these things. A bell has gone off in my brain that says "now’s the time."

One of the biggest challenges when it comes to wrapping your mind around the mobile world is the dizzying variety of mobile niches. Here’s how to make sense of them…

First off, credit to where credit it due. I’m cribbbing these insights from the magazine "Smart Phone and Pocket PC."

Here’s one way they break these devices down into categories:

1. Smartphones

2. Phone Editions (not sure how this is different from Smartphones.)

3. Pocket PCs

4. Veritcal Niche Pocket PCs (devises aimed at industrial/enterprise use)

The magazine breaks Smartphones down as follows:

1.  Businesss smartphones (ex. Nokia E62)

2. Computing powerhouses (ex. Palm Treao 700p)

3. "Social" smartphones (ex. the Blackberry Pearl)

4. "Business-Social" (ex. T-Mobile Dash)

Confused? Well, at least you have  some categories to house your confusion in. That’s a start.

The mobile world is already big, growing fast, and filled with variety. And it’s destined to take a central place in the world of the future (which is probably just 3 to 5 years away.)

For now, I’m going to stick with my lowly and simple cellphone, but I’m going to keep and eye out for what’s shaking in this Brave New World and I recommend that you do too:

Here’s a good map and guide: Smartphone and Pocket PC

Ken McCarthy

It’s really opened my eyes.

PCs have reached a plateau. Yes, they will get faster. Yes, they will continue to do great new things. But overall the pattern for their use  – the structure of the PC experience – has been set.

They’re like automobiles. Today’s cars are a lot better than the original Model A Ford, but essentially, not a whole lot has changed: they run on gasoline, they’ve got four rubber wheels, and they’re controlled by a round steering wheel and a gas pedal.

On the other hand, the mobile world is wide open and nowhere near formed.

On my way to System 2007, I found a copy of a magazine called "Smartphone & Pocket PC."  It’s a little bit thin – just 96 pages – and frankly, a lot of the content was incomprehensible to me, but it makes for eye opening reading.

How will we as marketers exploit this new medium? It beats me, but clearly this is a space to watch. One thing I can say is that it looks to me that mobile is going to break down to: communication, games, and tools, including, but not limited to, search.

Where does advertising fit into this? I’m not sure it does. If intrusive spam-like messages are annoying on a PC, they’re murder in the handheld

My guess – and that’s all it is at this point – is that the opportunities for marketers will come in two forms: 1) providing content that people need and it makes sense for them to access on their handhelds and 2) ranking high in the search engines for the kinds of things that handheld users will be searching for most commonly.

In my last article on this subject, I mentioned that there are really two kinds of searching: involved and simple.

"Involved searching" is if I’m planning a vacation to Europe and want to do background research on hotels and destinations or if I’m an engineer checking out the virtues of different vendors to help me with a technical problem I’m trying to solve.  Involved searches are for PCs.

Simple searchers are for what I call "on the ground" questions and problems like: 1) what’s the weather going to be tonight, 2) what’s the score of the playoff game, 3) where’s a good place to get Mexican food in Toronto. Not only are PCs not needed for these kinds of searches, but odds are folks won’t have a PC handy to get the answers to these questions.

I think travelers are going to end up being the heaviest users of handhelds for searching purposes. Nothing earth shattering there, but sometimes the obvious is worth stating. And what do travelers need? Current, localized information…like where to eat, where to stay, what to see, how to get there, weather, logistical info.

Most tourists don’t want to lug laptops with them on vacation. But handhelds. That’s going to be a different story.

Comparing travel to a military campaign…the PC is where the tourist plays general. He plots out the Big Moves of his trip: picking the destination, buying airline tickets, securing lodging.

The handheld is where the the tourist plays infantryman. It’s at the handheld level where a lot of the travel dollar decisions are going to be be made: exactly where to eat, alternative lodgings, side trips, unique entertanment choices. These "on the ground" decisions are made when you’re at your destination.

If I needed a big new project, I’d create an international network of mobile friendly search engines that provide this kind of "on the ground" info to travelers. In Chicago? Hit the button for Chicago Mobile Search and you’d have a menu featuring choices like these: Food, Lodging, Entertainment, Weather, Tools.

Tools would include things like currency calculators, phrase books, general maps. All the food, lodging, entertainment listings etc. would come with a map and GPS. See where the cafe is on a map, then have your GPS walk you to it.

For all I know such a search service already exists, but if it doesn’t and you want to get a lock on a particular location, consider creating a mobile friendly searchable directory that’s specific to your area. Sign up local businesses as advertisers, promote the heck out of it, make sure you rank high in the search engines for it, and watch the dollars roll in.

This is the year I finally became a serious cell phone user so I’m going to start paying a lot more attention to these stories and what they mean.

Heavy use of a cell phone has made three things clear to me:

1. Mobile is where things are headed. The PC will be for production (word processing, graphics, video), TV sized entertainment (video games and TV), and involved browsing, but a lot of what people use their PCs for will migrate to the handheld.

Clearly, e-mail is headed there. So is what I call simple browsing: searches where you’re looking for something immediately needed – and local – like stores, hotels, gas stations, or places to eat.  As for play, a whole generation of kids have been trained on Game Boys so I can see lot sof entertainment possibilities too.

2. Handhelds wil get more elaborate: bigger screens (for video watching), more mini-keyboards, and headsets will become common.

3. In this environment, consumers will not be very receptive to intrusive advertising. In fact, they’ll be as opposed to it as they are to intrusive telemarketing.

Interestingly, some of the things that Motorola reportedly bought Terayon for included its ability to deliver locally relevent video, permit digital insertion of ads, and graphic overlays.

I’ve actually developed a system that makes these same capabilities availble to web publishers. I’m hoping that after the System Seminar, I’ll have some time to package it for others to use. It’s quite slick, easy to use and makes it a lot easier to make Internet video sell.

DMB

It stands for Digital Multimedia Broadcasting – DMB.

It’s here, it’s now, and by all accounts, it’s amazing – if you live
in South Korea, but European countries are starting to test it too.

Right now, in the US, if you’re technically adept, you can download
and watch herky-jerky videos on your video-enabled cellphone.

With DMB, you can watch TV on your cellphone.

The government of South Korea, which is sponsoring the service,
expects two million users this year and 15 million (about one third of
the population) by 2010.

DMB comes in two flavors: T-DMB and S-DMB.

"T" stands for terrestial. "S "stands for satellite.  T-DMB is
broadcast from land-based installations S-DMB comes from satellites.

What
will it mean when hundreds of millions of people are carrying around
little TVs in their pockets? Beats me, but it makes sense to start
thinking about it, because the day is surely coming